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In Part 1 of this series, I explained what a Theory of Change is and why it can be useful for changes on a personal and organizational level. In this post, I’ll explain how to create a theory of change, using the following format:

For this example, let’s say that I am overweight and out of shape. I want to improve my health, so I decide to construct a theory of change and action plan that will help me in that process.

Step 1: Desired Change Assumptions. In this step I look at all of the underlying causes of my less-than-stellar health and why I think I got that way. For this example, I’ll say that I want to change because I haven’t been feeling well and I want more energy. The underlying causes of my health problems are poor eating habits and a lack of exercise. Ideally, I would like to be fit enough to run in a 5k and want to eat at least 5 servings of fresh fruit and vegetables every day.

Step 2: Actions. This is the traditional action planning step that most of us are familiar with. In this step I’ll brainstorm all of the things I need to achieve my desired outcome. Because I think I need more exercise, I decide that I’ll join a gym and work with a trainer. I also need to learn more about nutrition, so I’ll go to the library and research good eating habits. In working with my trainer, we come up with a 5 times per week workout plan and an eating schedule of 5 small meals per day. I’ll continue in this plan for 3 months.

Step 3: Results & Reflection. Some changes can take place quickly, but many are an ongoing process - such as my health improvement example. When this is the case, it’s helpful to pause occasionally and assess the progress that you’ve made so far. Then you can determine if you want to continue doing the same actions, take a break, or rework your assumptions and actions for better results. After my 3 months of improved diet and exercise, I’ll assess my fitness by running in a 5k race. I’ll review my food logs to see if I’ve been eating better. Then I will decide if I want to work toward more improvement or come up with a maintenance plan.

The real power of a Theory of Change is that it forces you to really examine the assumptions behind your thinking. My example is a pretty simple one, but in a more complex situation, this 1st step is very helpful. It is also a continuous improvement type of process that requires evaluation and at least thinking about ways to make your processes and plans better.

I think the Theory of Change tool is great for planning, but I’m always interested in learning about other tools. If you know of a good one, please share it in the comments.

Do you need a tool to help you create a process for change? Do you know where you would like to go, but can’t find a route, or compass point that will take you to your desired destination? Is your business or organization stuck in place instead of moving forward?

In the nonprofit and charitable sector organizations exist for the explicit purpose of changing some aspect of their communities. There are usually many possible ways to create the desired change, so organizations have to choose how to use their limited staff and budgets to get the most “bang for their buck.” The most successful organizations usually have an underlying framework that they use to guide those decisions, rather than just making it up as they go along. One tool that we use to create such a framework is called a theory of change.

What is This and Why Should I Care?

The Ford Foundation, one of the largest and most respected charitable foundations in the U.S. defines a theory of change as:

“[A tool that] describes a process of planned social change, from the assumptions that guide its design to the long-term goals it seeks to achieve.”

This definition really only applies to nonprofit organizations who are trying to advance their missions. However, I think that the idea of Theory of Change has a lot of relevance in many situations all the way from individual personal improvement up to and including inter-governmental groups such as the United Nations. In my view, tweaking the definition to:

“A tool that describes any process of planned change, from the assumptions that guide its design to the to the long-term goals it seeks to achieve.”

In my slightly tweaked definition, a theory of change can incorporate core values, a change management plan, a behavior modification plan, or any other type of improvement.

How is This Different From an Action Plan?

On the surface, a theory of change looks like just another plan of action that we might use to: try to quit smoking, find greater efficiencies in our departments, or lobby for a new law. When it’s done right, though, a theory of change includes many elements not found in a traditional plan of action such as:

• Core values. In other words, why do you want to create that particular change.
• Plan of action. What steps are you going to take.
• Assumptions. Why do you think the steps in your plan of action will work?
• Desired outcome(s). What do you want to happen when you complete this process?
• Measures of success. How will you know when you are done?

In Part 2 of this series, I’ll walk you through the process of creating a theory of change. In the meantime, if you want to read up on this concept, I recommend Grantcraft’s Mapping Change: Using a Theory of Change to Guide Planning and Evaluation.

Photo by Michael Kaufmann.

Is there anything in your work or personal life that has changed recently? Are you having trouble letting go of the “way things used to be?” Can you find anything positive about the new situation? If so, keep reading and I’ll teach you how to move forward more quickly and with fewer negative emotions than you have right now.

Paradigm: A set of assumptions, concepts, values, and practices that constitutes a way of viewing reality for the community that shares them …

Human beings have to create shortcuts to process all the information that comes at us every day. If we didn’t our brains would quickly become overwhelmed and we couldn’t function. Individually and as a society, we are constantly creating paradigms, which are essentially shortcut ways of understanding something. Problems arise when external conditions change, but our internal understanding stays the same.

This is a pretty abstract concept. Why is it important? Because clinging to old paradigms is a source of:

• Resistance to change
• Getting “stuck” in your work or personal life
• A lot of unhappy longing for the past

Here is an example to help you understand.

There are two main routes to get to my gym. Route 1 goes through town, has a few traffic lights, and generally moves along at the speed limit or a bit faster. Route 2 is along a secondary highway, has one or two traffic lights, and has a higher speed limit on average. You would think Route 2 would be reliably faster, and a couple of years ago you would be correct, but now conditions have changed.

Two summers ago, Route 2 was repaved. It used to be a 4 lane road, with 2 lanes traveling in each direction. During the repaving, the lanes were changed. Now there is 1 lane in each direction, a turning lane the whole length of the road, and bicycle lanes on both sides. This is great for bicyclists. Unfortunately, it seems that many of my communities more… let’s just call them town elders… live along that road. They tend to drive huge dinosaur burners and travel VERY SLOWLY, as in 35 MPH on a 50 MPH road. With the new lane configuration, there is no opportunity to pass these drivers.

It’s aggravating.

I stopped driving Route 2 a long time ago, unless I’ve got time to spare. My SO has not, and he inevitably gets stuck behind a slow moving vehicle and gets frustrated. Swearing ensues.

I finally realized that SO is clinging to an old paradigm. He keeps saying things like, “People used to drive 60 MPH on this road.” This is true, but it isn’t true anymore. The sooner he gets over this, the happier he’ll be!

How could he go about this?

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Scenario planning is a tool that can be used to forecast large scale societal changes and determine appropriate organizational responses to those changes. It was developed by the United States military in the 1960’s and was adopted by large corporations in the 1970’s. Shell Oil’s use of scenario planning to deal with the energy crisis of the 1970’s is probably the most famous corporate example. By using scenario planning to predict changes in the energy market, Shell was able to out-maneuver its competitors and stay profitable during the first major challenge to their market.

In recent years, the full-blown scenario planning process has fallen out of favor with large corporations. However, I have seen simpler adaptations of the tools of scenario planning applied successfully in the nonprofit sector. As I explained in What is Adaptive Capacity?, scenario planning can be used as a way of building up an organization’s ability to respond to external changes. Also, I’ve begun to use a version of the process in my personal planning. Let’s dive into the mechanics of scenario planning and see if it may be a good tool for you.

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Ed. Note: Hi Stumblers! Thanks for stopping by. If you like what you see and want more, subscribe to my RSS feed, or sign up to receive updates through email in the right-hand sidebar.

Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of any system to respond to change and return to a state of balance. I first heard of this concept in relation to the nonprofit sector in the United States. However, it can be applied to ecological systems, any type of organization, and even individuals.

An example of adaptive capacity in an ecological system would be of a river valley experiencing heavy rainfall. For a time the water level in the river will be much higher than normal. Most of the time the river basin will absorb the water fairly quickly and the water level will return to normal within a day or two. However, if the volume of rain exceeds the river basin’s capacity, the river will flood.

Change Fatigue
When an organization or an individual has an excessive amount of change in a short period of time, something has to give. To build on my previous analogy, the system will “flood” or break down in some way. For an organization the “flood” may take the form of communication breakdowns, high turnover, and low productivity. For an individual it could be extreme stress, relationship problems, or even physical and mental health issues.

These symptoms of change fatigue occur because the system isn’t strong and flexible enough to adapt.

Building Adaptive Capacity
It is possible to build adaptive capacity in and organization in much the same way as it is possible to build muscles in a human body - through regular, sustained exercise. When an organization is proactively engaged in steady, small changes, it will be much better positioned to handle external changes when they come up.

Here is just a small sampling of exercises that can build adaptive capacity.

1. Scenario Planning. An in-depth look at scenario planning requires its own post. For the time being it is enough to know that the process involves a team envisioning possible futures and detailing plans for those futures. The idea is to have possible actions for many situations, so that the organization is prepared for as many outcomes as possible.
2. Cross Training. Many organizations are running so lean now that they don’t have adequate “bench strength” in the case of a team member absence. Cross training is definitely helpful during times like flu season. However, it’s also an advantage to have cross-trained members so that the organization has multiple perspectives to adapt and improve processes. One person performing the same job for years can become inflexible or run out of ideas for making changes. Multiple perspectives of the same job can build the capacity for adaptation and continuous improvements.
3. “State of the Industry” Meetings. Many fields, such as real estate, have annual, local forecast meetings. These meetings allow members of that profession to get together and discuss expert projections and their own hunches of the coming year. If you don’t work in one of these fields, you can still have your own information exchange sessions with other members of your organization. Assign everyone a sub-topic to research and discuss the findings among your team or the whole organization. In rapidly changing fields, a quarterly meeting might be even better.

Change is Easier When You Know What’s Coming
In many ways, building adaptive capacity is a lot like building your crystal ball gazing skills. It’s pretty hard to adapt to circumstances that you just couldn’t see coming. In fact, we usually call those events “crises” or sometimes “acts of terrorism!” The good news is that most change follows fairly predictable patterns. Through careful study and information exchange, most organizations in most fields will be able to get the big things right.

These are ideas that I’ve picked up through my studies and experiences within a few types of organizations. If you’ve had different experiences, or tips for building adaptive capacity, please share those in the comments below.

Photo courtesy of mwookie.