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Okay, this is not a blog about politics, but it is a blog about change on all levels - including changes in societies. So, I’m going to indulge myself for a moment here and talk a bit about the current U.S. Presidential primaries.

At the time of this writing, Hilary Clinton and John McCain have shocked everyone by finishing first in their respective parties’ primaries in New Hampshire. Now, I’ll set aside for a moment that New Hampshire is a weird little state that is not at all demographically representative of the entire United States. The polls all predicted other people winning, and the polls turned out to be very wrong.

Candidate of Change

It seems, so far at least, that this election is going to be about the candidates making claim to being change makers. McCain, Obama, and Clinton to name a few, have all positioned themselves as the Candidate of Change (hear booming voice from the Heavens).

This is logical because all the data indicates that the American public is dissatisfied with the current state of Presidential leadership. When our situation is bad, we want to change it. When the President is admired (let’s use Ronald Reagan as a recent, if controversial, example), the voters often choose someone who is seen as capable of continuing their policies. Since the current President is not so universally loved, voters seem to want his polar opposite.

The question I would ask is, Is this real change, or just a cyclical reaction?

I Don’t Need to Walk Around in Circles

History if full of circular patterns. Stretch your mind for a moment and think back to the 1920’s and 1930’s in the United States. The “Roaring ’20s” were a time of great social permissiveness, when women started to wear short hair and short dresses and people drank bootlegged, illegal liquor. The 1930’s was a time of great economic depression and politics that focused on using government to help keep the country employed and the hungry fed. In today’s language, the politics of the day were quite liberal.

In the 1940’s and 1950’s, the focus of government shifted toward much more “conservative” policies emphasizing national defense (there was that issues with the Second World War, followed quickly by the Cold War) and business-friendly policies and regulations. These changes fueled tremendous economic growth, but not for all members of society.

The 1960’s and, to some extent, the 1970’s were much more liberal in focus and eventually led to the conservative backlash of the 1980’s.

Are you seeing a pattern here? As some have said, society often swings back and forth like a pendulum. A pendulum pattern is a type of change, but it’s a temporary and cyclical change. It’s like a person gaining and loosing the same 20 pounds over and over again.

I guess what I’m trying to say is, yes someone will win the Presidential election. And that person will probably make changes to how Things Are Done. But will those changes be true, lasting changes or just another swing of the pendulum?

Photo courtesy of dougieladd.

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